NEXT FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR = DEFINITELY ADHERING TO TRUMP’S DIRECT ORDERS
Headline:
Just A Matter Of Time.
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It’s Become Irrelevant If Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Fulfills His Entire Term…Concluding May 2026…
As The Federal Reserve’s Legacy Tactics + Strategies Will Soon Be Dramatically Trump-ified…
By A Forceful Executive Branch Make-Over Of The Fed.
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Thus…The Next Appointed Fed Chair…Whomever It Is =
Already 100% Compromised…
As Trump Will ONLY Select Somebody Willing To Capitulate To His Monetary Policy Directives…
Primarily Because Trump = “Control Freak”…
And For Now = He Does NOT Control Monetary Policy…
But In The Near Future…That’ll Change.
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Meanwhile…Trump + His Bullying/Lightweight Economic Cohorts =
1. Navarro +
2. Pulte +
3. Vance +
4. Vought
…Unleash A Relentless Barrage Of Brutal Personal/Professional Criticisms Toward Powell + The Fed…
Intending To Massively Discredit Both…
Setting The Pretext For Dramatic Change…
While Demonstrating…Once Again…
A Requirement For Those Positioned In Trump’s Administration =
Exchanging Any Sense Of Decorum/Respect For…
1. Pair Of Trump Worshiping Knee-Pads +
2. Militant Adherence To Harshly Disparage Those Deviating From Trump’s Commands/Demands
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Anyway…It Seems Trump’s First Order Monetary Policy Motivation =
Substantially Reduce The Costs Of U.S. Debt Service:
From: $1T/Fiscal Year = 16% Of Total Federal Spend
To: A Heck Of A Lot Less = As In 75-90% Less
Of Course = A Noble Objective…
But In The Short Term = Virtually Impossible…
As The Fed Controls Interest Rates Only At The Shortest End Of The Yield Curve…
While The Current Average Maturity Of U.S. Debt = 6 Years = Intermediate Duration.
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So Even If Trump’s New Fed Chair…Follows His Orders…
And Immediately Reduced Interest Rates 300 Basis Points…As Trump Has Publicly Articulated…
The Intermediate + Long Term Portions Of The Yield Curve Would Likely Dive In Price = Sending Yields Much Higher =
Likely Counter-Compensating…Equally Or More…
Any Benefits The U.S. Treasury Would Accrue At The Short End Of The Yield Curve…
Absolutely Reflecting =
1. Direct Political Interference At The Fed +
2. Un-Anchored Inflation Expectations
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Further + Apparently…Trump’s Strategy To Reduce Fiscal Interest Expense…
Includes Several Steps =
First…Bring Down Short Term Interest Rates…
Then…Substantially Reduce Debt Maturities…
To Take Advantage Of The Lower Front End Rates…
Which Sounds Fine In Theory…But It Is Commercially Impractical…
As Global Businesses + Financial Intermediaries Require A Full Spectrum Of Maturities…
Not Just Price/Supply Distorted Short Duration Debt…
From The World’s Largest + Most Liquid Bond Market…
To Operate Their Business Models.
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Trump Also Indicates The Fed’s Current Interest Rate Policy = Unjustifiably High…
Thereby...Unfairly Penalizing U.S. Government Finances…
As Restrictive Interest Rates =
1. Increase The Cost Of Servicing U.S. Debentures +
2. Subdue Economic Activity/Tax Receipts
However…That The Current U.S. Fiscal Budget = Hamstrung By High Interest Payments =
More Reflective Of The $36T Mountain Of Absolute Debt To Service…
Accumulated EVERY YEAR Since 2001= Both Democrat + Republican Controlled Congresses…
Rather Than The Absolute Interest Rate.
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Still…Despite Many Legitimate + Practical High Hurdles…
There Is No Doubt = Trump Will Attempt To Stamp His Brand Of Monetary Policy On Global Financial Markets…
With Potential Draconian Maneuvers Including =
1. Declaring U.S. Deficits/Debts As Another National Emergency…
Thereby “Clearing The Decks” For
2. Merging U.S. Treasury + Fed Functions = Working In Concert To Manage National Deficits/Debt +
3. Yield Curve Control = 10 Year Duration = Critical Focus
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So…Trump Will Further Shake The Economic Snow-Globe…
Eradicating + Flipping The Notion Of Fed Independence =
As Trump’s =
1. Framework +
2. Narrative +
3. Path
…For The Next Generation Federal Reserve = Appears To Have Already Been Set.
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PRESIDENTIAL POLITICIANS LEVER “FUNCTIONALLY ILLITERATE” VOTERS
Headlines:
1. Power Corrupts +
2. Large Scale Voter Illiteracy = Enables.
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No Matter The Idealistic Beliefs And/Or Political Party…
Eventually…“Bought + Paid For” U.S. Presidential Politicians =
1. Stumble Badly +
2. Disappoint Constituents +
3. Backpedal/Defend/Rationalize
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So Almost All Excell At Playing =
The Dirty Political Survival Game…
“Horse-Trading” Their Intellectual Dogma…
In Order To Exclusively Enrich Themselves With…
1. Power +
2. Prestige +
3. Privilege +
4. Recognition
…Irrespective Of The Collateral Damage =
1. Economically +
2. Geo-Politically.
…To Sovereign “Stars + Stripes.”
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Nevertheless Elected U.S. Presidents Earn Majority Support…At The Ballot Box.
However…Much Of That Support Now Originates From A…
1. Dubious +
2. Growing +
3. Trending
43 Million/21% Of Voting Eligible U.S. Adults = “Functionally Illiterate.”
…According To Department Of Education’s = National Center For Education Statistics [NCES]…
Specifically Characterized As Those Having Substantal Difficulty With Basic Literacy Tasks =
1. Comparing/Contrasting Information +
2. Making Low-Level Inferences +
3. Paraphrasing
As Well As Lacking Elementary Abilities To =
1. Calculate +
2. Read +
3. Write
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Thus…The U.S.’s Enormously Embarrassing 43 Million “Functionally Illiterate” Voting Block…
By Definition = Not So Challenging To…
1. Angle +
2. Deceive +
3. Persuade
…Easily Facilitating U.S. Presidents’ Insatiable Thirst For Populous Votes + Political Power.
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BESSENT + HASSETT + LUTNICK + NAVARRO = TRUMP’S INCOMPETENT ECONOMIC GANG
Headline:
Classic Henchmen.
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The U.S. Financial Market’s Capital Destroying Hurricane Was Brutal + Swift…
Unleashed By Trump’s Draconian Country Specific Tariffs =
Self Inflicted Supply Shock = Assigning $$ Burden To U.S. Businesses + Consumers = Indirect Tax.
Naturally…Bonds + U.S. Dollar + Stocks = Mercilessly Liquidated [See Below].
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Yet BHLN’s [Bessent + Hassett + Lutnick + Navarro] Subsequent Tariff Commentaries…
Indicate They Were Genuinely Startled By The Magnitude Of Market Declines =
A Huge Problem = As Their Collective Economic Ignorances Demonstrate:
1. Blind Loyalty To Master President Irrespective Of Market Signals Pointing To Likely Failure Of Economic Policy Objectives.
2. Deficient Capital + Financial Market Competencies.
3. Inabilities To Consider Secondary + Tertiary Consequences To Meaningful Economic Policy Pivots.
4. Intellectual Absolutism/Intransigence Toward Desired Economic Outcome In A Dynamic Global Economy With Unpredictable Response Mechanisms.
5. Lack Of Courage To Challenge President Despite Substantial Damage To U.S. = Company/Industry + Economy + Sovereign Brand.
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Furthermore…It Certainly Seems Trump Does Not Fully Comprehend Capital Markets…
And The Fragile Global Inter-Connections Between Bonds + Commodities + Currencies + Equities + Real Estate…
In Many Cases Collateralized + Financed + Margined With Strict Monetary Covenants.
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At Their Core…Financial Markets Enable Capital Formation…
In Order To Grow + Innovate + Mitigate Risk…
Of A Consumptive Economy.
And When These Capital Apparatuses Unusually Contort + Fail To Reliably Fire/Project…
As Currently = Dramatic Yield Spread Widening = Investment Grade + Junk + Municipal + Sovereign…
Markets Transmit A Flashing Red Signal That Economic Instability/Uncertainty Presides And Is Further Anticipated…
Unless Trump Either Soon Capitulates To The Market’s Desires…
Or Dramatically Improves His Economic Policy “Pitch”…
Which Thus Far =
1. Erratic +
2. Hostile +
3. Inconsistent +
4. Intellectually Hollow.
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Plus…That The Rest Of The World Is “Ripping Off” The United States…
Vis-A -Vis Trade Imbalances =
Too Simplistic + Vague.
Moreover…Trump Also Frequently Exaggerates + Mischaracterizes Financial Trade Facts.
For Instance The U.S. Goods Trade Deficit = While Regularly Robust…
Is Countered By A Consistent U.S. Services Surplus Of $20B+/- Per Month.
Further…Trade Deficits Calculate Gross Dollars…Not Profits [Much Smaller Percentage Of Gross Dollars].
And…Of Course…U.S. Goods Deficits Provide Consumers With Price Competitive Products…
Most Of Which Are Not Essential To National Security [Door Hinges + Sneakers].
What’s More = Inexpensive Goods Marginally Reduce U.S…
1. Inflationary Impulse +
2. Interest Costs/Rates
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Nevertheless…Global Goods Trading Metrics Could Be Much Improved [Universal Zero Tariffs]…
Especially With China = The #2 Global Economy [GDP] + Large Exporter To U.S…
Yet China = Communist Geo-Political Adversary = An Especially Complicating Factor…
Further Exacerbated By China’s Long Standing Reputation = Dicey Global Business Practitioners =
1. Copyright/Intellectual Property Theft + Patent Infringement [Entertainment/Software] +
2. Currency Manipulation +
3. Energy Purchases From/Enabling Sovereign Bullies [Iran/Russia] +
4. Import Trade Barriers +
5. Questionable Accounting/Financial Statement Principles/Standards +
6. Over-Supplied/Subsidized Industrialized Materials [Aluminum + Chemicals + Solar Panels + Steel]
…Ad Nauseum + Et Cetera.
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So…Despite Trump’s Self Professed Expertise…On All Subjects…
As It Specifically Pertains To The Intersection Of Capital Markets + Geo-Political Dynamics…
TRUMP IS CERTAINLY NOT THE SMARTEST GUY IN THE ROOM…
Because If He Were That Intelligent + Savvy…
He’d Quickly Realize His Extortionary Tariff Tactics Are Broadly Injuring The United States…
1. Economically +
2. Politically +
3. Reputationally
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…And In Order To Get Financial Markets “On Board” With His Nationalistic Dealmaking Policies…
The Requirement = A Less Economically Painful + More Judicious Medium Term Path To The Other Side Of Tariff-Ville…
Or He Greatly Risks Achieving Friendlier Financial Policy Objectives [Deregulation + Tax Policy] = Markets Would Welcome.
And That BHLN Appears Not To Have Counseled On These Specific Matters = Enormously Concerning.
Maybe Because Trump Clearly Values Personnel = More Adherent + Loyal To His Idealistic Beliefs…
Rather Than Competent + Professional.
And There Appears To Be Much Incompetence…
Well Beyond Commerce + Economics + Trade + Treasury.
For Example…Health + Human Services Secretary [RFK Jr.] = Prior 14 Year Heroin Addict + Now A Proud Conspiracy Theorist.
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Anyway…Trump’s Haphazard Tariff Policies = Increasingly Criticized + Scrutinized.
No Matter…Zealous Trump Believes He Knows What’s Best For America…
And When He Does Not Get What He Desires =
Trump Morphs Into A Macho Drama Queen…
1. Threatening +
2. Victimizing +
3. Whining
So For Now…The World Economy Is Primarily Beholden To Trump’s…
1. Dubious Emergency Declarations +
2. Emotional Financial Judgments +
3. Random Tariff Pivots
= The Distorted + New Normal For Capital Markets.
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