The Post IPO Price Launch Has Reversed Quite Substantially [Peak to Trough = 74.32%]…And Seems To Be Deserved…As Company Fundamentals…While Decent…Are Not Extremely Compelling…
“The artificial intelligence market in the enterprise remains nascent, with companies slow to expand AI use beyond initial pilots and science projects.”
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Anyway…The Fundamentals At C3.ai Are Really Just A Sideshow.
Because What C3.ai Really Seems To Be…Rather Than A Software Company…Is A Publicly Traded Entity Providing Extreme Affluence [via aggressive insider share liquidations] To It’s Board Of Directors And Senior Executives…Despite…To Date…Not Much Commercial Market Success.
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Of Course…It Is No Secret…That Serving On A Board Of Directors = Akin To Getting Paid For Not Doing Too Much…Other Than Typically “Rubber Stamping” Mundane Corporate Administrative Matters.
Frankly…It’s An Exclusive Club That We’d All Like To Join.
Especially Because The Compensation…For Participating In A Handful Of Quarterly/Annual Meetings…Is Very Handsome…$250K/Year = Not Unusual…As Well As…In Most Cases…Very Attractively Priced Stock Options.
And This Is Where The Story At C3.ai Becomes Increasingly FASCINATING.
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As The Above Weekly Price Chart Indicates…The Dollar Value Of Recent Insider Selling [the first since the IPO] = MASSIVE...As Insiders Have Already Reaped 46% More Dollars For Their Accounts Than The Company Raised In Its IPO.
To Be Precise…$567M For ALL Directors + Senior Executives…As Well As A Combined $333M For Client/Investor BKR [Oil Service Giant Baker Hughes] And Investor/Board Represented TPG [Texas Pacific Group].
And All This Selling Occurred In Just Two 2 Brief /Legitimate Time Windows Within The Past 4 Months [3.10.21 – 4.23.21 & 6.10.21 – 6.22.21].
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For Perspective…The Combined Dollar Value Of Insider Stock Sales Equates To 4.91x C3.ai’s TTM Revenues…And These Revenues…As A Reminder… Generate No Free Cash Flow.
That A Cash Burning + Relatively Slow Growing “Growth” Company…Such As C3.ai…Can Generate Almost $1B Of Income/Wealth For Insiders = Very Good For Them…But Very Bad For Public Market Investors Of C3.ai…As The Insider Selling…No Doubt…Has Further Weighed On The Share Price of C3.ai.
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Naturally…There Is Even More Intrigue To This…Primarily…INSIDER SELLING MACHINE.
#1. No Sales Price Is Too Low.
Insider Selling Was Initiated In March ’21 With The Share Price Already Down 53.77% From It’s All Time Price High And Near Its Lowest Trading Level…Since The IPO.
But Those Low Prices Did Not Deter…As Insider Sales Were Boldly Executed…Until Pausing…At A Further Depressed Level In Late April.
The Insider Selling Window Opened Again In Early June…With The Stock Down Even Further From Late April…And Another Torrent Of Shares Hit The Market.
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In All…Over 12.5M Shares Were Aggressively Dumped Into The Market… Generating Roughly $951M Of Proceeds For Insiders.
#2. Insiders Take NO Risk.
That Old Cliche…No Risk = No Reward…Certainly Does Not Apply At C3.ai…
As The Cost Basis For Most Of These Share Sales = Effectively Zero …According To SEC Form 4 Filings.
Thus…With A Cost Basis Of Zero…There Is No True Risk…As You Can Effectively Lose Nothing?
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#3. No Optimism.
A Captivating Feature Of These Share Sales Too = Most Insider Stock Was Sold On The Same Day That It Vested…Even With The Price Down Significantly From It’s December ’20/February ’21 Price Peaks.
So…The Urgency To Sell…While Not Unusual For Somebody With Much At Risk…Is Peculiar For “Insiders” Without Much Financial Risk…Given The Cost Basis Of Their Shares Was Close To Zero.
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Plus…With The Share Price Down So Dramatically…In A Very Short Period Of Time [see above price chart]…It Seems That None Of These Directors/Insiders So Much As Even Paused…For A Nano-Second…To Think…
“Perhaps I Should Just Hold On To My Stock For A While And Then Liquidate If The Shares Bounce Back Up A Bit“…
Especially Since The Company Does Position Itself As A Pure-Play In A Hyper-Growth Technology Sub-Sector…And Who Would Know That Better Than Top Insiders At The Company?
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#4. Institutional Shareholders Are The Current “Bag-Holders.”
While Insiders [including EVERY MEMBER OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS] Liquidated Large Share Positions…Resulting In Ridiculously Risk-less Profits + A Tanking Stock…
They Sold To Institutional Investors…Who Paradoxically…Have Much At Risk.
Thus…The Perceived Alignment Of Interests That Most Institutional Investors Seek…Between Company Executives/Insiders + Public Shareholders…Certainly Does Not Exist At C3.ai.
Actually…There Appears To Be Quite A Bit Of Market Conflict…Especially With Shares Continuing To Move Down And To The Right…
As Almost All Investors That Acquired Shares Of C3.ai…AFTER The IPO Started Trading…Have Lost Money…Other Than Short-Sellers “Covering” Their Positions.
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The Insider Selling Will Likely Continue At C3.ai…Without Pause…No Matter The Conflicting Optics Between Company Cash Burn + Insider Cash Build.
However…As The Size-Able Insider Selling Continues At It’s Current Pace…
C3.ai’s “Totally Cool” Corporate Name…Might Take On An Entirely New Meaning…As In…
C3 = “See” You In “3” Weeks/Months For More Insider Selling.
ai = “a”dios “i”nvestors…As Lopsided Insider Compensation Agitates.
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Contact The Author: Dominate@GlobalSlant.com
