Global/Slant

Headlines:
1. Wall Street’s Ubiquitous Snake Oil.
2. Imperfect Predictors Of The Past.

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Price Charts = Exceptionally Beneficial Pictures To Both Investor/Trader…

Reflecting Both Current Expectations + Historical Price Performance.

However…The Hundreds Of Associated/Layered Derivative Technical Indicators Such As =

1. Moving Average +
2. MACD +
3. RSI

Measuring =

1. Momentum +
2. Relative Performance +
3. Thrust

= 100% Waste Of Time…

As No Matter How Infinitely…

1. Configured +
2. Prioritized +
3. Shuffled

Their Ability To Even Moderately Forecast Price Direction = At Best = 50/50

…Especially When Reviewed/Tested Over Multi Cycle/Year Periods…

Versus Recency Biased + Truncated Time Frames.

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The Initial/Primary Hook With Derivative Technicals =

Trending Markets/Securities = Higher Highs/Higher Lows & Vice-Versa For Shorts…

As Derivative Technicals…Appear To Be Relatively Reliable…

But Are Just Mirroring Price…Which = Nothing Heroic.

However…When The Trend

1. Breaks +
2. Concludes +
3. Devolves

…Derivative Technical Signals Are Generally Random + Offer No Consistent/Predictive Value.

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Furthermore…A Frequently Under-Appreciated Factor Regarding Derivative Technical Measures =

100% Price Regression Based…

Thus…A Great Paradox With Derivative Technical Application =

Backward Looking Derivative Technicals Are Applied To Forwardly Discounting Equity Securities =

Which Might Also Explain Why Derivative Technicals = No More Reliable Than A Coin Toss.

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Decision Structures In Chaotic Financial Markets = Logical + Necessary.

However…Markets = Not If/Then Science That Can Be Precisely Mapped + Measured.

Rather…More Often…

Markets =

1. Adaptive +
2. Counter-Intuitive +
3. Emotional

Not Surprisingly…Like The Humans Behind The Market’s Curtain.

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U.S. 10 Year Bond Yields + Oil Prices = Since Iran “Excursion” Initiated.

Headlines:
1. Longer Than Expected = Chemical + Oil Supply Shock = Bond Market “Grace Period” = Expired.
2. Oil Price Launch = Inflation = Increased Interest Rates.
3. Fed Chair Warsh Faces Initial Policy Test = Trump-ian Rate Cuts Vs. Bond Market Vigilantes.

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Headline:
Some Only Understand Fear + Power.

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Despite Significant Military Advantages + Other Critical Leverages…

Trump = Currently Balking At Advancing The Theater Of War Against Iran =

The Pre-Eminent State Sponsor Of Terror For The Past 45+ Years.

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The Simplistic Argument Against…

A Complete Annihilation Of Iran + Its Infrastructure Seems To Be =

The Governing Leadership Of Iran = Bad People…

While The Citizens Of Iran = “Good” People.

So Why Punish The “Good” Citizens Of Iran…By Universally Destroying Their Infrastructure…

For The Actions Committed By The Bad People?

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However…Whether Iran’s Citizens = “Good” People

…Is Actually Quite Debate-able…

Since For 45+ Years They’ve Enabled Their Government To…

1. Construct +
2. Facilitate +
3. Fund +
4. Prosecute

…The Globe’s Largest Terrorist Network = Hamas + Hezbollah Et Cetera…

And What Is A Nation…If Not Its People?

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Furthermore…Iran’s Responses To U.S. Attacks  =

Page One/Chapter One Of Its Confrontational Playbook =

To TERRORIZE =

1. Regional Sovereign Neighbors = Missile Bombardments +
2. Global Economic Activity = Sharply Higher Chemical/Oil Prices = Maritime Block Of Hormuz.

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Therefore…How To Effectively Navigate A Terrorist Nation That Wishes “Death To America?”

Unfortunately…For Multiple Reasons…

Coincident/Subsequent To The Shah’s Overthrow + U.S. Hostage Turmoil In 1979…

American Diplomacy With Iran = 100% Waste Of Time.

As Bilaterally…None Of The Following Currently Exist =

1. Respect +
2. Trust +
3. Values

…And Are Not Changing Anytime Soon.

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However…At Least One Upside To Inevitable U.S./Iran Diplomatic Failures =

World Financial Markets Will Not Be Subjected To Trump’s Tiresome “Boy Who Cried Wolf” Social Media Chatter =

1. Diplomatic Talks “Going Well” +
2. Iranian Cooperation/Support To Remove Nuclear Dust/Sea Mines +
3. “Very Soon” Statements Vis-A-Vis Hormuz Open + War Ending

…That Have Amounted To Nothing More Than A Huge Pile Of Stinking Dog-Pinch.

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So…A Different Catalyst = Required To Conclude This Conflict.

Thus…3 Remaining U.S. Options =

1. To Bail + Declare Mission Accomplished
2. Patience = Heightened Economic Embargo

However Neither #1 Nor #2 =

Short Term Hormuz Re-Opening = Unsustainable For Global Economy…

Which Leads To…

3. Destroy Iran’s Entire Productive Resource Base + Supportive Infrastructure Including =

i. Airports/Bridges/Railways +
ii. Desalination Plants +
iii. Kharg Island Oil Facilities +
iv. Oil Pipelines/Production +
v. Power Grids

…Intended To Suddenly + Sustainably Paralyze Iran’s Government + People…

While Also…

1. Emasculating Iran’s Regionally Destabilizing Influence +
2. Resuming Hormuz Oil Flow

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Maybe/Eventually Trump Will Execute These Brutal But Necessary Strikes On Terrorist State Iran That…

ONLY UNDERSTANDS FEAR + POWER…

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